How to estimate how much an app makes
October 1, 2026 · 6 min read
No app store tells you what an app earns, and most published “app revenue” figures are guesses with a decimal point. You can do better than a guess and worse than a number: a range, from four public facts and four assumptions you can see and argue with.
In short
- No store publishes revenue, but four public facts give a range: ratings or installs, age and price.
- Downloads × the share who pay × what a payer is worth a month, plus renewals.
- Expect a range about ten times wide: it tells you the order of magnitude, which is what a decision needs.
On this page5 sections
01Downloads a month
On Google Play, the listing shows an install band — 100,000+, 1,000,000+. That is a floor; the real count sits above it. Spread it over the app's age for a monthly figure, then allow for the real count being up to two and a half times the floor.
The App Store shows no installs, but it shows ratings. A common rule of thumb is 50 to 100 downloads for every rating left. Divide the rating count by the app's age in months — and if you can see how many ratings it gained recently, use that instead: an app that peaked two years ago earns like it does today, not like it did then.
- downloads for every App Store rating
- 50–100
- downloads for every App Store rating
- Google Play's install floor
- 1–2.5×
- Google Play's install floor
- of downloads pay, in apps that sell
- 1.5–4%
- of downloads pay, in apps that sell
02How many pay
For apps that sell something, somewhere between 1.5% and 4% of downloads ever pay. Apps that sell nothing earn from ads, which is a different sum and much smaller per user.
03What a payer is worth a month
Take the highest price in the app's in-app purchase list — usually the yearly plan or a lifetime unlock. A paying user is worth roughly a tenth to a quarter of that each month, depending on how many take the yearly plan and how long they stay.
04Renewals
This month's revenue is not only this month's new payers; earlier subscribers renew. Add 20% to 100% on top, more for apps people use daily.
05Put it together
Multiply the low ends together and the high ends together. The range comes out wide — often ten times from bottom to top — and that is the honest answer. What it tells you is the order of magnitude: hundreds, thousands or hundreds of thousands a month. That is usually all a decision needs.
- Wrong for apps with huge free audiences and a tiny paying core, such as social apps.
- Wrong for apps that sell outside the store (web subscriptions), which the store never sees.
- Right enough to compare the leaders of a niche with each other — the question that matters before you build.
| Step | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Ratings a month: 12,000 over 24 months | 500 | 500 |
| Downloads a month: × 50 to × 100 | 25,000 | 50,000 |
| Paying users: 1.5% to 4% | 375 | 2,000 |
| A payer a month: $39.99 ÷ 10 to ÷ 4 | $4.00 | $10.00 |
| Renewals: + 20% to + 100% | × 1.2 | × 2 |
| Monthly revenue | ≈ $1,800 | ≈ $40,000 |
The free app revenue calculator runs this method for any app, and SideRadar runs it for the top ten of every niche, with the same assumptions. How we score